[vii] Church et al., ‘Sea-Level Change’; ; J. The following aspects of sea level rise are included: Sea level is an important indicator of climate change because it can have significant impacts on settlements, infrastructure, people and natural systems. Projections from process-based models with likely ranges and median values for GMSL rise up to 2100 (relative to 1986-2005) have been made for three RCP scenarios. A collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (i.e. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised immediately, sea level would continue to rise for many centuries. A. The curve is corrected for the effect of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004). By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change. 10 (1 October 2014): 104008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008. Data for other grid cells partly covered by land and by sea were extrapolated using the nearest-neighbour method. Storm surge levels along most European coastal areas south of 50 °N showed small changes and in some regions may decline to partly offset the effect of mean sea level rise on projected extreme water levels [viii]. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. Low-lying coastlines with high population densities and small tidal ranges are most vulnerable to sea level rise, in particular where adaptation is hindered by a lack of economic resources or by other constraints. Sea level changes can be driven either by variations in the amount of water in the oceans, the volume of the ocean or by changes of the land compared to the sea surface. Values larger than 1 indicate an increase in flooding frequency, Past trends: extreme sea level along the European coastline. [ii] Melisa Menéndez and Philip L. Woodworth, ‘Changes in Extreme High Water Levels Based on a Quasi-Global Tide-Gauge Data Set’,Journal of Geophysical Research 115, no. 16 (28 August 2014): 5951–59, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061356; Clark et al., ‘Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change’. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives in the future. The locally experienced changes in sea level differ from global average changes for various reasons. Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. Global and European sea level, 10 Oct 2014 - Sea level is measured by two main methods: tide gauges and satellite altimeters. C10 (8 October 2010): C10011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005997; Øystein Hov et al., ‘Extreme Weather Events in Europe: Preparing for Climate Change Adaptation’ (Oslo: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2013), http://www.dnva.no/binfil/download.php?tid=58783; Weisse et al., ‘Changing Extreme Sea Levels along European Coasts’. Changes in land water storage have made only a small contribution, but the rate of groundwater extraction has increased recently and now exceeds the rate of storage in reservoirs [iii]. 6 (1 June 2015): 3873–95, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010716; J. Blunden and D. S. Arndt, ‘A Look at 2016: Takeaway Points from theState of the Climate Supplement’,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, no. The EC also supports adaptation in cities through the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative. The Educating Coastal Communities About Sea-level Rise project team wishes to acknowledge the traditional and ancestral territories of the more than 630 Indigenous communities, representing more than 50 nations, that have long cared for these lands we call Canada. Changes in storm surge characteristics are linked to changes in the characteristics of atmospheric storms, including the frequency, track and intensity of the storms. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which will be achieved by bridging the knowledge gap and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. The grey boxes show the median of the model projections (central bar) as well as the likely range, which comprises two thirds of the model projections. This increase appears to be predominantly due to increases in mean local sea level rather than to changes in storm activity. If you have forgotten your password, the local sea level relative to land averaged over a year or so), changes in tidal range, changes in the local wave climate or changes in storm surge characteristics. Further contributions may come from changes in the storage of liquid water on land, in either natural reservoirs such as groundwater or man-made reservoirs. 7 (26 June 2017): 492–95, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325; Hans Visser, Sönke Dangendorf, and Arthur C. Petersen, ‘A Review of Trend Models Applied to Sea Level Data with Reference to the “Acceleration-Deceleration Debate”’,Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120, no. The frequency of flooding events is estimated to increase by more than a factor of 10 in many European locations, and by a factor of more than 100 in some locations (Figure 6) for the RCP4.5 scenario [x]. IPCC, 2019. Higher flood levels increase the risk to life and property, including to sea dikes and other infrastructure, with potential impacts on tourism, recreation and transportation functions. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change. Most coastal regions have also experienced an increase in sea level relative to land, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound. The following aspects of sea level rise are included: In April 2013, the European Commission presented the EU adaptation strategy package. [i] Ralf Weisse et al., ‘Changing Extreme Sea Levels along European Coasts’,Coastal Engineering, Coasts@Risks: THESEUS, a new wave in coastal protection, 87 (May 2014): 4–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.017. [ix] M.D. Changes in global average sea level result from a combination of several physical processes. spatial trends in absolute sea level across European seas, based on satellite measurements (since 1993); A. Slangen et al., ‘Projecting Twenty-First Century Regional Sea-Level Changes’,Climatic Change 124, no. For further information, see the source document. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources’. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation. (Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010), 326–75, http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/9781444323276.ch11. Pellestrina is home mostly to fishermen. Sea level measurements for the European region are available from satellite altimeter observations (Figure 2) and from tide gauges (Figure 3). 7596 (31 March 2016): 591–97, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145; Johannes Jakob Fürst et al., ‘The Safety Band of Antarctic Ice Shelves’,Nature Climate Change 6 (8 February 2016): 479–82, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2912; James Hansen et al., ‘Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations That 2 °C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous’,Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, no. Dangendorf et al. This is an area in which current scientific understanding is advancing quickly, as climate model representations of aspects of northern hemisphere storm track behaviour are improving, because of, for instance, greater ocean and atmosphere resolution. EEA Web Team, Software updated on 9 (May 2010): 1042–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.02.002; Marta Marcos et al., ‘Changes in Storm Surges in Southern Europe from a Regional Model under Climate Change Scenarios’,Global and Planetary Change 77, no. Higher flood levels increase the risk to life and property, including to sea dikes and other infrastructure, with potential impacts on tourism, recreation and transportation functions. This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rises globally and in European seas. NASA launches U.S.-European satellite to track sea level rise The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite, put into Earth orbit, is expected to have unprecedented accuracy. Church et al., ‘Revisiting the Earth’s Sea-Level and Energy Budgets from 1961 to 2008’,Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. 4 (April 2014): 292–99, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2161; Robert M. DeConto and David Pollard, ‘Contribution of Antarctica to Past and Future Sea-Level Rise’,Nature 531, no. Projections for relative mean sea level in Europe consider the gravitational and solid Earth response and land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment, but not land subsidence as a result of human activities. View now » Coastal Risk Screening Tool: Map By Water Level. the frequency and height of maximum water levels) may be caused by changes in local mean sea level (i.e. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20–30%. As far as the indicator derived from satellite altimetry is concerned, the global and European sea level trends are calculated from a combination of nine partly overlapping satellite missions. Rising sea levels can also cause salt-water intrusion into low-lying aquifers, thus threatening water supplies and endangering coastal ecosystems and wetlands. It considers the national, regional and global challenges Climate-ADAPT was developed jointly by the European Commission and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies. Producing a clear picture of either past changes or future projections of extreme high water levels for the entire European coastline is a challenging task because of the impact of local topographical features on surge events. (2019): Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. The annual and semi-annual periodic signals are adjusted and the time series is low-pass filtered. observed change in GMSL, based on two reconstructions from tide gauge measurements (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993); Further objectives include ‘Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies’ and ‘Promoting action by Member States’. [xii] Luis M. Abadie, Elisa Sainz de Murieta, and Ibon Galarraga, ‘Climate Risk Assessment under Uncertainty: An Application to Main European Coastal Cities’,Frontiers in Marine Science 3 (16 December 2016), https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00265. A study that combined the model-based assessments from the AR5 with updated models and probabilistic expert assessment of the sea level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets suggests an upper limit for GMSL rise during the 21st century of 1.8 m, which has a 5 % probability of being exceeded under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario [xi]. (New version data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-6/assessment was published), Horizontal spatial distribution of mean sea level trend in European Seas (January 1993- December 2015). First, changes in water density are not expected to be spatially uniform, and the spatial pattern also depends on changes in large-scale ocean circulation. Sea level projections are based on process-based models, which are rooted in state-of-the-art climate model simulations. 66 % probability) in the range of 0.28–0.61 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.52–0.98 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). This map shows the estimated multiplication factor, by which the frequency of flooding events of a given height changes between 2010 and 2100 due to projected regional sea relative level rise under the RCP4.5 scenario. The coloured bars and boxes show estimates for the different contributions to global sea-level rise. Climate change can both increase and decrease average wave height along the European coastline, depending on the location and season. Finally, at any particular location, there may be a vertical movement of the land in either direction, due, for example, to the ongoing effects of post-glacial rebound (also known as glacial isostatic adjustment), which is particularly strong in northern Europe, to local groundwater extraction or to other processes, including tectonic activity. This package consists of the EU strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. Sea level projections are based on process-based models, which are rooted in state-of-the-art climate model simulations. Large changes in flood frequency mean that what is an extreme event today may become the norm by the end of the century in some locations. Furthermore, there are significant gaps in the spatial coverage of tide gauges with long time series, including in Europe. Estimates for the average rate of global sea level rise over the 20th century range from 1.2 to 1.7 mm/year, with significant decadal variation. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission. John A. The EEA Web CMS works best with following browsers: Internet Explorer is not recommended for the CMS area. 10 (30 January 2014): 3582–95, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00427.1. Model-based projections for changes in regional sea level rise included only grid cells that are covered at least half by sea. projected change in relative sea level across European seas; The average sea level rise predicted by the IPCC, the United Nations body for assessing climate change, is 0.43 metres by the end of the 21st century, and it … Global and European sea-level rise, 19 Nov 2012 - The best known coastal flooding event in Europe in living memory occurred in 1953 when a combination of a severe storm surge and a high spring tide caused in excess of 2 000 deaths in Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, and damaged or destroyed more than 40 000 buildings. However, the newest global climate models have not yet, typically, been downscaled to suitably fine scales and used in studies of future storm surges. contributes to the growing international discourse on (2017): Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise, Legeais et al. 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